What we do today may shape the lives of animals for billions of years to come. According to longtermism, positively influencing the far future is a key moral priority of our time. In this session, we will examine the implications of longtermism for animal advocacy, including how lock-in scenarios limit future pathways, uncertainty about the outcomes of our actions over increasingly long timescales, backfire risks, and a potential strategic reorientation: towards the welfare of wild animals.

🧩 Central questions

1. Why future beings matter: What is the case for prioritizing the needs and interests for future beings?
2. Present vs. future: How do we balance today’s urgent suffering against the vast, uncertain needs of the future? Which actions might benefit both present and future beings?
3. Lock-in: Certain developments could permanently and irreversibly shape the future of animal welfare for the better – or for the worse. How can we anticipate and navigate lock-in scenarios?
4. Negotiating cluelessness: With so much uncertainty, what actions can we take that are robustly positive for animals? How can we preempt and limit backfire risks?
5. Shifting priorities: How does adopting a longtermist perspective shift advocacy priorities? What does impact for wild animals look like?

🧭 Learning objectives

1. Understand: Clarify the core motivations, claims, and assumptions of longtermism. Define related concepts like lock-in, cluelessness/uncertainty, and backfire risks. Explain the importance of wild animal welfare, identifying major causes of suffering.
2. Assess: Critically evaluate arguments for prioritizing the far future. Evaluate wild animal welfare as a longtermist priority.
3. Reason: Weigh scale against uncertainty, backfire risks, and other considerations. Explore and develop strategies which are robust across different assumptions.
4. Next steps: Identify key organizations, thinkers, and research areas in longtermist animal advocacy.

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Resources

Required readings

Additional readings (please complete ≥1 set of readings)

Further readings (optional)

Pre-session exercises

Please spend 20-30 minutes completing these two exercises.

• You can write your responses in bullet point format if that’s easier.
• Submit your responses in the weekly Slack thread created by your facilitator in your channel at least 24 hours before your regularly scheduled meeting.
• Leave at least one comment on somebody else’s response.

The case for and against longtermism

[150 words] Longtermism holds that positively influencing the far future (the next 500, 1,000, or even 10,000+ years) is a, if not the, defining moral priority of our time.

First, review the basic argument for longtermism:

1. Moral status: The lives and suffering of future people and animals matter just as much as those alive today.
2. Numbers: The number of future people and animals who could exist is vastly larger than the number of beings alive now.
3. Unique leverage: Due to our special place in history, our actions could significantly influence their lives for the better or for the worse.
4. Priority: If (1-3) are true, then positively influencing the far future should be our moral priority.

∴ Conclusion: Positively influencing the far future should be our moral priority.

Your task is to analyze this argument:

1. Which specific premise (i-iv) do you find the most compelling or well-supported?